Value-Add DFW Garden Assets Search

Eight assets pass your box, but only one — Hunters Glen — has a rent gap worth renovating for. The other seven are already at or above what renovated 1980s product in these submarkets actually collects.

The screen produced eight qualifying assets: seven in East Plano/Allen, one in the Richardson submarket. Five of the eight sit in the bottom third of their submarket's in-place rent PSF. But the ranking axis you asked for — gap to renovated comps — is where the thesis mostly breaks.

Submarket	Year Built / Last Reno	Units	Avg Unit SF	In-Place Rent PSF	Bottom Third?	Renovated Comp PSF (unit-wtd)	Gap ($ PSF)	Gap (%)	Gap ($/unit/mo)
East Plano/Allen	1979 / 2011	276	946	$1.39	Yes	$1.601	$0.207	+14.9%	$196
East Plano/Allen	1981 / 2014	286	961	$1.54	Yes	$1.60	$0.057	+3.7%	$55
East Plano/Allen	1985 / 2008	140	1,010	$1.54	Yes	$1.60	$0.057	+3.7%	$58
East Plano/Allen	1982 / 2001	278	951	$1.59	Yes	$1.60	$0.007	+0.4%	$7
East Plano/Allen	1983 / never	182	783	$1.61	Yes	$1.60	($0.013)	(0.8%)	($10)
East Plano/Allen	1984 / 2000	244	879	$1.66	No	$1.60	($0.063)	(3.8%)	($55)
East Plano/Allen	1985 / 2009	208	855	$1.71	No	$1.60	($0.113)	(6.6%)	($97)
Richardson	1976 / 2005	184	710	$1.59	No	$1.40	($0.190)	(11.9%)	($135)

Hunters Glen is the deal. $1.39 PSF against a $1.60 renovated-comp average is a $0.21 PSF, $196/unit/month gap — the widest in the set and the only one above 5%. It's also visibly under-operated at 83.7% occupancy with 66.7% retention, which is what a $1.39 rent on 946 SF garden units in a Plano ISD location usually means. At $18k/unit interiors and 85% gap capture, that's roughly $467k of incremental NOI, a 9.4% yield on renovation cost, and about $3.9M of net value creation at a 5.25% exit. The grid holds up: it stays value-accretive down to 50% capture at $18k/unit and only turns negative at 50% capture above roughly $20k/unit.

The other seven are the more important finding. Renovated 1980s garden product in East Plano/Allen collects only $1.60 PSF — below the $1.65 bottom-third threshold and well below the $1.75 submarket median, because CityLine and downtown Plano mid-rise at $1.85–$2.23 set the median, not the vintage you buy. So "bottom third of the submarket" and "below renovated 1980s comps" are nearly the same line here. Fox Trails and Plano Park Townhomes clear it by $0.06 — inside the noise, and at $18k/unit neither creates value. Legacy, Spring Pointe and Hunter's Court are already renting above their submarket's renovated average without having been renovated.

Richardson is effectively closed to this strategy. One asset in the whole submarket fits your box, and the renovated cohort there averages $1.40 PSF across nine properties — Carisma, Windham Chase, La Mirada and The Thread all sit at $1.20–$1.28 after renovations completed 2017–2024. Capital went into that stock and the rents didn't follow. The Richardson submarket as mapped is anchored on the Spring Valley/Coit corridor in Dallas 75240, not Richardson's Telecom Corridor employment core, which explains the rent ceiling.

Two things would change the read. First, benchmark choice: if you underwrite to best-in-class renovated execution rather than the cohort average — Villas at Chase Oaks at $1.73 PSF (1986, renovated 2022) — Fox Trails' gap triples to $0.19 and Bellevue's to $0.14, and a three-asset program becomes arguable. That's a defensible target if your operations beat the average operator's; it is not what the average renovated comp supports today. Second, in-place rents at Fox Trails and Bellevue are being compared against renovated comps whose own asking rents are below their in-place rents — Villas at Chase Oaks asks $1.86 but collects $1.73, meaning the renovated cohort is pushing on asking and not yet converting.

Where I'd spend time: Hunters Glen, immediately — last traded February 2022, so it's four and a half years into a hold with a 2011 renovation vintage and deteriorating occupancy. Fox Trails is the second call only if you underwrite to best-in-class rather than average, and it last traded in December 2011 at $65k/unit, so basis on any new deal will be the binding constraint, not rent. Skip Richardson entirely on this thesis.

Change the renovation cost, capture rate, or exit cap on the Assumptions tab and the ranking and sensitivity grids move with it. If you want me to widen the geography — West Plano, Central/South Garland, and Northwest Mesquite all carry deeper 1975–1990 garden inventory — say the word.