Property-wide, vacancy is not getting worse — it's your premium two-bedroom variants, and one unit that's been sitting 206 days, creating the impression.

Across 402 vacancy episodes since March 2023, the median unit takes 39 days to go from vacant to leased. The trailing twelve months runs better than history at 35 days1, and the last 90 days at 37.52 — inside the normal band, not above it. Vacant-unrented exposure is also down: 7–12 units a day since May versus 14–20 a year ago. Against the Lockhart submarket, where recent signings take a median 57 days and occupancy has dropped from 97.6% to 91.9% over the year, Luna at 48 days and 94.3% is outperforming a softening market.

So the aggregate says no. The floorplan cut says yes — in three specific plans.

B1C is the real deterioration. It went from a 26.5-day median with zero units ever crossing 60 days, to a 71.5-day median with 63% of turns crossing 60 — on 8 turns, small but unambiguous in direction3. B4 worsened to a 76.5-day median4 and B1B to 46 from 25. All three are the top of your two-bedroom rent stack: B1C asks ~$2,337, B1B ~$2,423, B4 ~$2,262 against a submarket two-bedroom average ask of $1,892. The plainer B1 and B2 at $2,143 and $2,253 both lease in about a month, and B2 actually cut its median in half from 65 days. That is a price-resistance pattern at the top of the stack, not a product problem — priced 20–28% over submarket average while the submarket's own asking rents fell 3.6% over the year and tradeouts run negative. Annualized, the added downtime in those three plans costs roughly $47,200 a year in forgone rent5.

Everything else improved. One-bedrooms (A1, A2) now lease in 26 and 17 days, down from 37 and 41. B3 halved to 22 days. Three-bedroom C2 is at 39 days.

Unit 07-307 is the single biggest item on the board. A B2 carrying a $2,259 market rent, vacant and flagged "ready" since March 2 — 206 days, about $15,500 of rent forgone6, and 41% of the total $38,200 sitting across all 14 currently vacant units7. Nothing in the status history suggests a renovation hold. Either it's offline and mis-coded, or it's been marketed for seven months at a price nobody will pay. Either way it needs an answer today. The rest of the current board is healthy: median 19.5 days vacant, with only 03-304 (71 days) also past the threshold.

What I'd do: pull 07-307's leasing and work-order history this week and either recode it or reprice it. Cut B1C asks toward the low-$2,200s and hold B4 flat rather than pushing it — those two plans carry $40,400 of the $47,200 annual bleed. Leave the one-bedrooms and B2 alone; they're working.

What would change this read: B1C and B4 each turn only 8 times a year, so two fast leases would pull those medians back toward normal. If you have the Box Score, traffic-versus-conversion on those plans would tell us whether it's exposure or price — I'd expect price, but that confirms it.