A sponsor sent us a rent roll for Parkside at Round Rock (Round Rock, TX) claiming average in-place rents of $1,295 on 1-beds and $1,695 on 2-beds at 96% occupancy. Compare that to what RealAI tracks at the property and in the Round Rock – east submarket by bedroom, and to the property's occupancy and rent trend over the last 12 months. Which claims hold up and which would a lender push back on?
Now the 12-month monthly trend at the property, total and by bedroom.
mkdir -p work && cat > work/sponsor_claim_gaps.py <<'EOF'
claims={'1BR':1295,'2BR':1695}
prop_ip={'1BR':1190.75,'2BR':1576.71}; prop_ask={'1BR':1245.37,'2BR':1592.60}
sub_ip={'1BR':1228.65,'2BR':1603.35}; sub_ask={'1BR':1275.51,'2BR':1663.09}
ip_aug25={'1BR':1254.19,'2BR':1724.67}; ip_aug26={'1BR':1191.66,'2BR':1576.71}
ip_max12={'1BR':1254.19,'2BR':1724.67}
for b in claims:
c=claims[b]
print(b, f"vs prop in-place {c-prop_ip[b]:+.0f} ({c/prop_ip[b]-1:+.1%})",
f"| vs prop asking {c-prop_ask[b]:+.0f} ({c/prop_ask[b]-1:+.1%})",
f"| vs sub in-place {c-sub_ip[b]:+.0f} ({c/sub_ip[b]-1:+.1%})",
f"| vs sub asking {c-sub_ask[b]:+.0f} ({c/sub_ask[b]-1:+.1%})",
f"| prop in-place 12mo chg {ip_aug26[b]/ip_aug25[b]-1:+.1%}")
occ={'latest':0.9352,'30d':0.9716,'3mo':0.9722,'6mo':0.9468,'12mo':0.9977}
print({k:f"{(0.96-v)*432:+.1f} units" for k,v in occ.items()})
print("unleased share", 38/432, "leased-proxy", 1-38/432)
monthly=[0.99537,0.99769,0.97222,0.95833,0.94676,0.93981,0.94676,0.94676,0.96528,0.98148,0.96991,0.98148,0.98148]
print("12mo avg monthly occ", sum(monthly[1:])/12, "min", min(monthly))
EOF
python3 work/sponsor_claim_gaps.pyBottom line: The 96% occupancy figure is defensible as a trailing average. It isn't a clean current number. Neither rent claim holds up. The sponsor's 1-bed and 2-bed averages are 7–9% above the in-place rents RealAI tracks at the property, above the property's own current asking rents, and above the submarket. A lender will size the loan on something close to $1,190 / $1,575, not $1,295 / $1,695.
| Sponsor claim | Parkside in-place | Parkside asking | Round Rock – east in-place | Round Rock – east asking | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-bed | $1,295 | $1,191 | $1,245 | $1,229 | $1,276 |
| 2-bed | $1,695 | $1,577 | $1,593 | $1,603 | $1,663 |
| Point in time | Occupancy |
|---|---|
| Latest reading (9/26) | 93.5% |
| 30-day average | 97.2% |
| 3 months ago | 97.2% |
| 6 months ago | 94.7% |
| 12 months ago | 99.8% |
What holds up: 96% occupancy as a trailing-12-month or 30-day average, and Parkside's modest edge over the submarket on both occupancy and retention (67% vs. 63%) .
What doesn't: Both average rent figures, and any occupancy presented as the current number.
The fastest fix is to ask the sponsor for the unit-level rent roll with the rent roll date, concessions, and other income broken out. Then reconcile it to these figures.
This is a read-only snapshot of a RealAI analysis.