Brush Creek Meadows Competitive Analysis

The room to grow is all in the one-bedrooms — and you're funding it by cutting two-bedroom rents in a market that's raising them.

Brush Creek Meadows is the healthier asset on every occupancy and retention measure: 96.4% occupied against a 94.7% comp-set median and 92.9% for the ETSU/Johnson City submarket , with 75.9% trailing-12-month retention versus 67.7% across the comps . That is not a property with a demand problem. It's a property with a pricing problem, and the two have been confused.

The tell is tradeout. New leases at Brush Creek are signing 2.9% below the prior tenant's rent while the submarket is trading new leases up 12.4% — a 15.3-point spread . Unit-level, that's five 2BR units re-leased at $1,275 against the $1,350 street rate the other 36 occupied 2BRs pay . You are discounting to fill units in a market where competitors are pushing.

Unit Type	Units	Subject In-Place	Comp-Set In-Place Median	Gap $/mo	Gap %	Annualized Gap
1BR	32	$1,011	$1,1591	+$148	+12.8%	+$56,893
2BR	42	$1,341	$1,352	+$11	+0.8%	+$5,741
3BR	8	$1,649	$1,594	-$552	-3.4%	-$5,237
Total/Weighted	82	$1,2423	$1,301	+$58	+4.5%	+$57,397

Where the growth is: the 1BRs, and almost nowhere else. Thirty-two one-bedrooms sit at $1,011 against a $1,159 comp median — a $148/month, 12.8% gap worth $56,893 annualized . That's 91% of the property's entire mark-to-market opportunity. And these units are the easiest sell you have: 1BR median days-on-market at the property runs 26 days versus 46 for the 2BRs , and the one 1BR that was actually pushed re-leased at +10.7% in four days. Tenant capacity supports it — rent-to-income is 23.9% , well inside affordable, so a $100–150 increase doesn't break the resident base. Gross upside at full capture is $62,634; at 30% capture in year one (against a 24% natural roll) that's roughly $16,900 of NOI .

Where to focus improvements: the 2BRs, and it's a velocity problem, not a rent problem. Forty-two units — half the property — are already at market ($11/month gap) and sitting nearly twice as long on market as the 1BRs. There is no rent upside here; the upside is not giving away $75/month to lease them. Two-bedroom asking rent of $1,599 is 10% above the $1,454 comp median , which is why they sit, and why they then clear at a discount. Reset the 2BR ask to roughly $1,450–1,475 and hold the floor — a credible ask that leases in three weeks beats an aspirational ask that leases in seven at $1,275.

Leave the 3BRs alone. Eight units at $1,649 are 3.4% above the comp median ; one is already vacant at a $1,699 ask. Hold rent flat at renewal here. Any push is a move-out you can't afford at 1,280 sq ft.

What would change this read: the downside case is that the comp median isn't achievable at Brush Creek's east-side location — every core comp sits 2.6–5.3 miles west, closer to ETSU and the Med-Tech corridor. If achievable rent is 8% below the comp median, year-one NOI lift falls to about $5,700; if the 1BR gap is real and capture reaches 50%, it's roughly $28,200 . Watch the next three 1BR turns: if they clear at $1,125–1,150 inside 30 days, the gap is real and you should be pushing renewals too. Also watch supply — Vintage Johnson City (288 units, 2026) and Universal at Mountainview (324 units, 2025) are both in lease-up in the submarket, which is what's holding submarket occupancy at 92.9% and will cap the 2BR ask.

The base case to underwrite is about $17,000 of year-one NOI, almost entirely from repricing 32 one-bedrooms at turn — not from the 2BRs, and not from a broad rent push. The workbook lets you move the achievable-rent and capture assumptions directly.