Austin Multifamily Refinance Risk Analysis

AXCS provides preferred equity and rescue capital. In the Austin metro, find market-rate properties of 150+ units built 2000 or later that last sold between mid-2021 and September 2022, with the sale price per unit. For each, show in-place rent change over 12 months, current occupancy, and days on market versus its submarket. Rank them by likelihood that the owner faces a refinancing gap today.

6:13 PM

Content

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"""Refi-gap screen: Austin MF, 150+ units, built 2000+, last sold Jul-2021..Sep-2022 with a recorded price.
Inputs are copied from RealAI Datamart query results (property_mfr, submarket, market caprate_ts,
market mf_pnl_benchmarks, mortgage_rates). Assumptions are labeled and editable at the top.
"""
import json

# ---------------- Assumptions (editable) ----------------
ACQ_LTV = 0.65            # assumed acquisition loan-to-price (2021-22 vintage), interest-only, no paydown
CAP_TODAY = 0.0490        # Green Street Austin MF cap rate, 2Q26
MKT_OTHER_INC = 0.1290    # Austin other income % of net rent (mf_pnl_benchmarks)
MKT_NOI_MARGIN = 0.4511   # Austin NOI % of EGI (mf_pnl_benchmarks)
# Refi tiers (Freddie CME fixed, 10-yr, 30-yr amort): (LTV max, rate, DSCR min)
TIERS = [(0.65, 0.0606, 1.35), (0.80, 0.0618, 1.25)]
AMORT_YRS = 30
CAP_AT_SALE = {"3Q21": 0.0354, "4Q21": 0.0343, "1Q22": 0.0358, "2Q22": 0.0389, "3Q22": 0.0398}

def quarter(d):
    y, m = int(d[:4]), int(d[5:7])
    return f"{(m-1)//3+1}Q{str(y)[2:]}"

def constant(r, yrs=AMORT_YRS):
    i = r / 12; n = yrs * 12
    return 12 * i / (1 - (1 + i) ** -n)

# ---------------- Submarket benchmarks ----------------
SUB = {  # id: (name, in-place t12 median chg, occupancy, DOM median)
 "716dd44f13f312a4817bbd9423eb3dfe": ("East Central Austin", -0.0353, 0.9260, 63),
 "ab4b9968f16b41e70abdec1dadf0974d": ("Far West Blvd", -0.0458, 0.9465, 63),
 "bb42723f5a02e4599a1fbd332212f610": ("Round Rock - south", -0.0191, 0.9253, 72),
 "6181e5d5b72e4069a7e1d2e65ec08c92": ("Pershing", -0.0268, 0.9131, 72),
 "4c7e9a0dd70046840796fcbd67aaaaa0": ("Georgetown - west", -0.0296, 0.9290, 69),
 "762e3ab64c7c40341b840a79defcfb9c": ("Cedar Park", -0.0277, 0.9315, 66),
 "91823b937bfddb257636785e0ee3a381": ("Walnut Forest", -0.0620, 0.9105, 72),
 "d2f950a35ddc82a91e1bd462fb2f0909": ("Round Rock - east", -0.0255, 0.9233, 66),
 "fd7bdff3b0991efa1a43d110b35480b0": ("San Marcos/Kyle", -0.0360, 0.9156, 88),
 "8acfa38b5a1b4de4c7126d7c954edfa6": ("Brushy Creek", -0.0426, 0.9592, 63),
 "8d4dfbd44021ad3126e424824bb3c73b": ("Downtown - south", -0.0539, 0.9532, 67),
}

# ---------------- Properties ----------------
# name, id, submarket, units, yr built, sale date, price, ppu, rent_type,
# in-place avg, in-place t12 median chg, occ, DOM, property NOI margin (None -> market), notes
P = [
 ("Bell South Shore","b0f5b109f9cf11e435983afc757f4cf3","716dd44f13f312a4817bbd9423eb3dfe",506,2013,"2022-06-09",177156000,350110.67,"MARKET",1955.76,0.0076,0.9506,99,None,""),
 ("Nalle Woods of Westlake","5618a6580fbbe9ac55b4d5f9bdca9a83","ab4b9968f16b41e70abdec1dadf0974d",238,2003,"2021-07-01",67500000,283613.45,"MARKET",2255.42,-0.0133,0.9496,92,None,""),
 ("Preserve at Rolling Oaks","2dd0fe6fd999ebf09aa45058e347536b","bb42723f5a02e4599a1fbd332212f610",494,2001,"2022-09-29",137283930,277902.69,"MARKET_AND_AFFORDABLE",1497.22,-0.0221,0.9190,60,0.6157,"Fee owner: Housing Authority of the City of Austin (PFC structure)"),
 ("Nexus East","cfa587bca572237b50bea121bab99440","6181e5d5b72e4069a7e1d2e65ec08c92",352,2021,"2021-11-22",86875000,246803.98,"MARKET_AND_AFFORDABLE",1565.90,-0.0538,0.9659,152,None,"Bought in lease-up; 57% rent sample coverage"),
 ("The Summit at Rivery Park","617eace508a346d397fac87ddcde9432","4c7e9a0dd70046840796fcbd67aaaaa0",228,2015,"2022-01-24",51138500,224291.67,"MARKET",1272.60,-0.0245,0.9211,87,None,"56% rent sample coverage"),
 ("Vera Cedar Park","cd067f2bf9b135a7c42cdd701d10d3df","762e3ab64c7c40341b840a79defcfb9c",242,2022,"2021-12-17",52485125,216880.68,"MARKET",1710.31,-0.0086,0.8430,117,None,"Bought pre-completion"),
 ("The Reserve at Walnut Creek","0fcfa1dfbda9297a603f4a3f9641cb89","91823b937bfddb257636785e0ee3a381",284,2002,"2022-04-01",59388605,209114.81,"MARKET",1348.63,-0.0493,0.8345,103,None,""),
 ("Reveal 54","af7af01ac22d70a8fd77d5e857409e70","d2f950a35ddc82a91e1bd462fb2f0909",418,2019,"2021-09-29",85312500,204096.89,"MARKET",1603.83,-0.0313,0.8995,55,0.48,""),
 ("Palm Valley Apartments","b7ff9ca206175cb45c77cd650e7c51b8","d2f950a35ddc82a91e1bd462fb2f0909",340,2008,"2022-01-14",67250984,197797.01,"MARKET",1255.50,-0.0269,0.9235,48,0.4037,""),
 ("Ventana at Plum Creek","c8cd2636b6b06a15637962ee2daad3ba","fd7bdff3b0991efa1a43d110b35480b0",180,2018,"2022-02-28",32867700,182598.33,"MARKET",1355.80,-0.0185,0.9667,217,0.4101,"DOM on few leases (9 unleased units)"),
 ("Lakeline Parmer Lane Apartments","a6b7c5415c2a024dca145a2146518128","8acfa38b5a1b4de4c7126d7c954edfa6",312,2000,"2021-09-15",35000000,112179.49,"MARKET",1169.36,0.0336,0.9135,14,0.3659,"Reported NOI $1.78M used"),
]
LAKELINE_NOI = 1780164.45  # mf_pnl_net_operating_income

recs = []
for (n, pid, sm, u, yb, sd, price, ppu, rt, ipr, ipchg, occ, dom, margin, note) in P:
    smn, s_chg, s_occ, s_dom = SUB[sm]
    q = quarter(sd)
    net_rent = ipr * u * occ * 12
    egi = net_rent * (1 + MKT_OTHER_INC)
    m = margin if margin is not None else MKT_NOI_MARGIN
    noi = LAKELINE_NOI if pid == "a6b7c5415c2a024dca145a2146518128" else egi * m
    value = noi / CAP_TODAY
    loan = price * ACQ_LTV
    proceeds = max(min(ltv * value, noi / (dscr * constant(r))) for ltv, r, dscr in TIERS)
    gap = loan - proceeds
    recs.append(dict(
        entity=n, id=pid, submarket=smn, units=u, year_built=yb, sale_date=sd, sale_qtr=q,
        sale_price=price, price_per_unit=ppu, rent_type=rt, note=note,
        cap_at_sale=CAP_AT_SALE[q], implied_noi_at_sale=price * CAP_AT_SALE[q],
        in_place_rent=ipr, in_place_t12=ipchg, sub_in_place_t12=s_chg, rent_vs_sub=ipchg - s_chg,
        occupancy=occ, sub_occupancy=s_occ, occ_vs_sub=occ - s_occ,
        dom=dom, sub_dom=s_dom, dom_vs_sub=dom - s_dom,
        noi_today=noi, noi_margin=m, noi_chg_vs_sale=noi / (price * CAP_AT_SALE[q]) - 1,
        value_today=value, value_per_unit=value / u, value_chg=value / price - 1,
        est_loan=loan, refi_proceeds=proceeds, refi_gap=gap, gap_per_unit=gap / u,
        gap_pct_of_loan=gap / loan,
    ))

def label(g):
    return "Severe" if g >= 0.30 else ("Material" if g >= 0.10 else ("Thin" if g > 0 else "No gap"))
for r in recs:
    r["gap_label"] = label(r["gap_pct_of_loan"])

json.dump(recs, open("refi_gap/records.json", "w"), indent=1)

# Sensitivity: gap % of loan at alternative acquisition LTV and cap rate
sens = []
for r in recs:
    row = {"entity": r["entity"]}
    for ltv in (0.55, 0.65, 0.75):
        for cap in (0.049, 0.0525, 0.055):
            v = r["noi_today"] / cap
            pr = max(min(l * v, r["noi_today"] / (d * constant(rt))) for l, rt, d in TIERS)
            row[f"ltv{int(ltv*100)}_cap{cap*100:.2f}"] = round((r["sale_price"] * ltv - pr) / (r["sale_price"] * ltv), 3)
    sens.append(row)
json.dump(sens, open("refi_gap/sensitivity.json", "w"), indent=1)

print(f"debt constants: {[round(constant(t[1]),4) for t in TIERS]}")
hdr = f"{'Property':32} {'$/unit':>8} {'Val/u':>8} {'ValChg':>7} {'NOIchg':>7} {'Loan$M':>7} {'Refi$M':>7} {'Gap$M':>7} {'Gap/u':>8} {'Gap%':>6} {'Label':>8}"
print(hdr)
for r in sorted(recs, key=lambda x: -x["gap_pct_of_loan"]):
    print(f"{r['entity'][:32]:32} {r['price_per_unit']:8.0f} {r['value_per_unit']:8.0f} {r['value_chg']:7.1%} {r['noi_chg_vs_sale']:7.1%} "
          f"{r['est_loan']/1e6:7.1f} {r['refi_proceeds']/1e6:7.1f} {r['refi_gap']/1e6:7.1f} {r['gap_per_unit']:8.0f} {r['gap_pct_of_loan']:6.1%} {r['gap_label']:>8}")
print()
print(f"{'Property':32} {'IPchg':>7} {'SubIP':>7} {'Occ':>6} {'SubOcc':>6} {'dOcc':>6} {'DOM':>4} {'SubDOM':>6} {'dDOM':>5}")
for r in recs:
    print(f"{r['entity'][:32]:32} {r['in_place_t12']:7.2%} {r['sub_in_place_t12']:7.2%} {r['occupancy']:6.1%} {r['sub_occupancy']:6.1%} {r['occ_vs_sub']*100:6.1f} {r['dom']:4d} {r['sub_dom']:6d} {r['dom_vs_sub']:5d}")
print()
for s in sens:
    print(s["entity"][:28], {k: v for k, v in s.items() if k != "entity"})

Instructions

Goal: For a preferred-equity / rescue-capital investor, find public evidence of debt distress or recapitalization for 11 Austin-area apartment properties that last sold between July 2021 and September 2022. This feeds a ranking of which owners likely face a refinancing gap today (current date 2026-09-29).

Properties (name — address — last sale date — sale price — recorded fee owner):

Bell South Shore — 1333 Shore District Dr, Austin TX 78741 — 2022-06-09 — $177.2M — BELL FUND VII SOUTH SHORE DISTRICT LP
Nalle Woods of Westlake — 4700 N Capital of Texas Hwy, Austin TX 78746 — 2021-07-01 — $67.5M — MORNINGSIDE NALLE 770 LLC / MORNINGSIDE NALLE MDP LLC
Preserve at Rolling Oaks — 15450 FM 1325, Austin TX 78728 — 2022-09-29 — $137.3M — HOUSING AUTHORITY OF THE CITY OF AUSTIN (likely PFC partnership)
Nexus East — 720 Airport Blvd, Austin TX 78702 — 2021-11-22 — $86.9M — TMP AIRPORT BLVD PROJECT LLC
The Summit at Rivery Park — 1400 Rivery Blvd, Georgetown TX 78628 — 2022-01-24 — $51.1M — 1400 RIVERY PROPERTY LLC
Vera Cedar Park — 805 C-Bar Ranch Trl, Cedar Park TX 78613 — 2021-12-17 — $52.5M — CRP/SRE CEDAR PARK II OWNER LP
The Reserve at Walnut Creek — 8038 Exchange Dr, Austin TX 78754 — 2022-04-01 — $59.4M — RESERVE WALNUT CREEK PROPERTY OWNER LLC
Reveal 54 — 5401 N Mays St, Georgetown TX 78626 — 2021-09-29 — $85.3M — BVF-V GEORGETOWN 2 LLC
Palm Valley Apartments — 1301 N A W Grimes Blvd, Round Rock TX 78665 — 2022-01-14 — $67.3M — PALM VALLEY ACQUISITION LLC
Ventana at Plum Creek — 4624 Cromwell Dr, Kyle TX 78640 — 2022-02-28 — $32.9M — PLUM CREEK MULTIFAMILY PARTNERS LP
Lakeline Parmer Lane Apartments — 10101 W Parmer Ln, Austin TX 78717 — 2021-09-15 — $35.0M — LAKELINE PARMER LANE I LLC

For each property, use web_search (and web_fetch where a result looks relevant) to look for: acquisition financing details (lender, loan amount, loan type e.g., floating-rate bridge / agency / CLO, maturity), foreclosure postings or notices of trustee sale, loan modifications/extensions, special servicing or watchlist mentions (CRE CLO, CMBS/Freddie K-deal), recapitalizations, rescue capital, or resale/listing since the 2021-22 purchase. Also confirm the buyer/sponsor name for the 2021-22 sale. Try 2-3 queries per property (e.g., "<name> Austin apartments loan", "<name> foreclosure", "<sponsor> <name> acquisition"). Keep it efficient; do not spend more than ~4 tool calls per property.

Rules: Report only what a source actually says; do not infer loan terms. Flag conflicts. If nothing is found, say "nothing found". Note that Texas is a non-disclosure state and deed of trust details may not be online.

Output: Save a JSON file at subagents/distress_scan/findings.json with one object per property: {name, sponsor_buyer, lender, loan_amount, loan_type, maturity, distress_signals (list of short strings), sources (list of {url, verbatim_quote})}. Return a compact summary table in your final report with the same fields plus the URL and a short verbatim quote for every fact.

Results

Summary

Ran targeted web searches (2-4 per property) for public evidence of debt distress, foreclosure, special servicing, recapitalization, or resale activity on 11 Austin-area apartment properties sold 2021-2022. No property returned a confirmed foreclosure notice, special-servicing/watchlist listing, CMBS/CRE-CLO delinquency report, or recapitalization announcement naming that specific asset. Texas's non-disclosure status and the absence of asset-specific trade-press coverage limited what's discoverable online. Full detail with quotes/URLs saved to subagents/distress_scan/findings.json.

Compact summary table:

Property	Sponsor/Buyer (confirmed)	Lender/Loan/Maturity	Distress Signals	Confidence
Bell South Shore	Bell Partners (Bell Fund VII)	nothing found	None found; Bell reported securing normal acquisition financing in 2023 (multifamilydive.com)	Low-med
Nalle Woods of Westlake	Morningside Group	nothing found	None found; still under Morningside mgmt	Low
Preserve at Rolling Oaks	Housing Authority of Austin (PFC likely)	nothing found	None found; couldn't locate PFC bond docs	Low
Nexus East	TMP Airport Blvd Project LLC (buyer name beyond LLC unconfirmed)	nothing found	None found; Newmark confirmed as sale broker (rebusinessonline.com)	Low
Summit at Rivery Park	1400 Rivery Property LLC (unconfirmed)	nothing found	None found	Low
Vera Cedar Park	CRP/SRE Cedar Park II Owner LP — possible Carlyle Realty Partners affiliation (unconfirmed, inferred from unrelated BaFin filing naming "CRP/SRE" entities)	nothing found	None found — flagged conflict: sponsor link is speculative	Low
Reserve at Walnut Creek	Reserve Walnut Creek Property Owner LLC (unconfirmed)	nothing found	None found; a SEC CLO exhibit and a generic syndication-loss article both mention "Walnut Creek" but do not refer to this Austin asset — explicitly excluded as false positives	L

Command

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cd /vercel/sandbox && python - <<'EOF'
import re
p='refi_gap/refi_gap_screen.py'; s=open(p).read()
s=s.replace('''    return "Severe" if g >= 0.30 else ("Material" if g >= 0.10 else ("Thin" if g > 0 else "No gap"))''','''    return "Severe" if g >= 0.40 else ("High" if g >= 0.25 else "Moderate")''')
s+='''
# Current debt yield on assumed loan vs debt yield a 1.25x / 6.18% agency refi requires
req_dy = 1.25 * constant(0.0618)
print(f"required debt yield at 1.25x/6.18%: {req_dy:.2%}")
for r in recs:
    print(f"{r['entity'][:32]:32} DY on assumed loan {r['noi_today']/r['est_loan']:.2%}  NOI ${r['noi_today']/1e6:.2f}M  value ${r['value_today']/1e6:.1f}M")
'''
open(p,'w').write(s)
EOF
python refi_gap/refi_gap_screen.py | tail -13
S=skills/multi-entity-analysis/scripts/cross_check.py
python $S --check buckets --field gap_label --expected "Severe,High,Moderate" refi_gap/records.json | tr -d '\n '; echo
python $S --check composite --components gap_pct_of_loan,occ_vs_sub,rent_vs_sub,dom_vs_sub --weights 0.55,-0.15,-0.15,0.15 refi_gap/records.json > refi_gap/composite.json
python - <<'EOF'
import json
d=json.load(open('refi_gap/composite.json')); R={r['entity']:r for r in json.load(open('refi_gap/records.json'))}
for i,x in enumerate(d['ranked']):
    r=R[x['entity']]
    print(f"{i+1}. {r['entity']} | score {x['score']:.1f} | {r['gap_label']} | ${r['price_per_unit']:,.0f}/u ({r['sale_date']}) | est val ${r['value_per_unit']:,.0f}/u ({r['value_chg']:+.0%}) | gap ${r['refi_gap']/1e6:.1f}M = ${r['gap_per_unit']:,.0f}/u = {r['gap_pct_of_loan']:.0%} of loan | IP t12 {r['in_place_t12']:+.1%} vs {r['sub_in_place_t12']:+.1%} | occ {r['occupancy']:.1%} vs {r['sub_occupancy']:.1%} | DOM {r['dom']} vs {r['sub_dom']}")
EOF
python $S --check extremum --field gap_per_unit --direction max --claim "Bell South Shore" refi_gap/records.json | tr -d '\n '; echo
python $S --check extremum --field occupancy --direction min --claim "The Reserve at Walnut Creek" refi_gap/records.json | tr -d '\n '; echo
python $S --check predicate --field in_place_t12 --op gt --value 0 --claim "Lakeline Parmer Lane Apartments" refi_gap/records.json | tr -d '\n '; echo
python $S --check predicate --field value_chg --op gt --value 0 --claim "Lakeline Parmer Lane Apartments" refi_gap/records.json | tr -d '\n '; echo

Eleven market-rate or mixed-income deals fit your filters and have both a recorded price and current operating data. Every one of them likely has a refinancing gap today. The problem is interest rates, not asset value. At a 4.90% Austin multifamily cap rate and about 6.2% on 10-year agency debt at 1.25x coverage , a lender needs about a 9.2% debt yield. If the buyers borrowed 65% of the price, these assets earn only 4.9–7.8% on that loan . Debt coverage is what caps the new loan in every case, not loan-to-value, so the result doesn't change unless cap rates rise above about 5.5%.

The debt is an assumption. I can't see the actual loans (Texas doesn't require sale prices or loan terms to be disclosed). I assumed each buyer borrowed 65% of the price, interest-only, with no paydown.

Ranked by likelihood of a refinancing gap

#	Property (submarket)	Units / built	Sale date · $/unit	Est. value/unit today	Est. gap ($M · % of loan)	In-place rent 12-mo: property vs submarket	Occupancy: property vs submarket	Days on market: property vs submarket
1	Reserve at Walnut Creek (Walnut Forest)	284 / 2002	Apr-22 · $209,115	$140,369 (−33%)	$17.3M · 45%	−4.9% vs −6.2%	83.5% vs 91.0%	103 vs 72
2	Summit at Rivery Park (Georgetown W)	228 / 2015	Jan-22 · $224,292	$146,201 (−35%)	$15.4M · 46%	−2.5% vs −3.0%	92.1% vs 92.9%	87 vs 69
3	Palm Valley (Round Rock E)	340 / 2008	Jan-22 · $197,797	$129,417 (−35%)	$20.2M · 46%	−2.7% vs −2.5%	92.3% vs 92.3%	48 vs 66
4	Bell South Shore (East Central)	506 / 2013	Jun-22 · $350,111	$231,881 (−34%)	$52.4M · 46%	+0.8% vs −3.5%	95.1% vs 92.6%	99 vs 63
5	Nexus East (Pershing)†	352 / 2021	Nov-21 · $246,804	$188,646 (−24%)	$21.0M · 37%	−5.4% vs −2.7%	96.6% vs 91.3%	152 vs 72
6	Vera Cedar Park (Cedar Park)	242 / 2022	Dec-21 · $216,881	$179,827 (−17%)	$10.9M · 32%	−0.9% vs −2.8%	84.3% vs 93.2%	117 vs 66
7	Ventana at Plum Creek (San Marcos/Kyle)	180 / 2018	Feb-22 · $182,598	$148,613 (−19%)	$7.1M · 33%	−1.8% vs −3.6%	96.7% vs 91.6%	217 vs 88‡
8	Preserve at Rolling Oaks (Round Rock S)†	494 / 2001	Sep-22 · $277,903	$234,234 (−16%)	$27.4M · 31%	−2.2% vs −1.9%	91.9% vs 92.5%	60 vs 72
9	Reveal 54 (Round Rock E)	418 / 2019	Sep-21 · $204,097	$191,461 (−6%)	$12.7M · 23%	−3.1% vs −2.5%	90.0% vs 92.3%	55 vs 66
10	Nalle Woods of Westlake (Far West)	238 / 2003	Jul-21 · $283,613	$267,128 (−6%)	$9.9M · 23%	−1.3% vs −4.6%	95.0% vs 94.7%	92 vs 63
11	Lakeline Parmer Lane (Brushy Creek)	312 / 2000	Sep-21 · $112,179	$116,442 (+4%)	$3.3M · 15%	+3.4% vs −4.3%	91.3% vs 95.9%	14 vs 63

Sources: sale data ; property rent, occupancy and days on market ; submarket benchmarks ; modeled value, gap and ranking .

† Mixed market and affordable units. ‡ Ventana's days-on-market figure rests on only 9 unleased units.

Austin-Metro Multifamily Risk Tiers (Ranks 1-11 + 2 Unranked)

What stands out for AXCS

Walnut Creek is the best rescue candidate. It has the lowest occupancy in the set, 7.5 points below its submarket, and it's in the weakest submarket for rents. Its operations are getting worse on top of a roughly 45% gap, which puts the owner under the most pressure.
Bell South Shore is the largest single check. It was bought at the peak (Austin cap rates were 3.89% in 2Q22) for $350K/unit. The estimated gap is about $52M, or about $104K/unit, the most per unit in the set. It is still operating well: it's one of only two properties with rising in-place rent, and occupancy is above its submarket. That makes it a clean preferred-equity story (a sound asset with the wrong debt) rather than an operational turnaround.
Summit at Rivery Park and Palm Valley are similar: early-2022 purchases that operate about in line with their submarkets. They have gaps of about 46% simply because they were bought at a sub-3.6% cap rate.
Vera Cedar Park and Nexus East were bought before lease-up finished. Vera is still at 84% occupancy. Nexus is full, but its rents are falling twice as fast as its submarket, with days on market twice the submarket's.
Lakeline is the only property worth more than its purchase price. Its $112K/unit price is well below the rest of this vintage, so it may have been a partial-interest or non-market sale. Check it before relying on it.

No public distress was found. Searches turned up no foreclosure notices, special-servicing mentions or recapitalizations tied to any of these 11 properties. The only practical way to see the actual loans is the deed-of-trust records at the Travis, Williamson and Hays county clerks.

How the list was built and scored

How the list was built: I searched the Austin metro for properties with 150+ units, built 2000 or later, last sold July 1, 2021 through September 30, 2022. That returned 139 sales, but only 15 had a recorded price; most of the rest were construction or lease-up deals .
- I dropped Champions Crossing and Legacy Lockhart because they are fully affordable.
- Debut SoCo ($252K/unit) and Siena Round Rock ($237K/unit) have no rent or occupancy data, so they aren't ranked .
Mixed-income owners: Preserve at Rolling Oaks and Siena are held by public housing entities. The Austin Housing Authority and Cameron County Housing Finance Corp. are the recorded owners . That structure likely comes with a property-tax exemption, which helps their income.
Estimated income: In-place rent × units × occupancy × 12, plus other income at 12.9% of rent (Austin benchmark). Operating expenses use the property's own expense ratio where one exists, otherwise the Austin benchmark of 45.1% of income left as NOI . Lakeline uses its reported NOI of $1.78M.
Refinance sizing: Value is NOI ÷ 4.90%. The new loan is the larger of two Freddie Mac 10-year fixed options: 65% of value at 6.06% and 1.35x coverage, or 80% at 6.18% and 1.25x, each on a 30-year payment schedule .
Sensitivity: At 55% borrowed instead of 65%, every property except Lakeline still has a gap. At 75% borrowed, gaps are 26–54% .
Ranking weights: The estimated gap as a share of the loan is 55% of the score. The other 45% is split evenly (15% each) across occupancy vs submarket, rent change vs submarket, and days on market vs submarket. The gap is the direct measure; the three operating metrics show whether things are improving or getting worse. Risk tiers: Severe means a gap of at least 40% of the loan, High 25–40%, Moderate below 25%.

If it would help, I can turn this into an Excel model where you can change the assumed borrowing level, rate and cap rate for each property.