Northern Virginia Value-Add Rental Analysis

Find market-rate rental properties in Fairfax County, Arlington County, Alexandria, Loudoun County and Prince William County, VA with 150 or more units, built before 2000, whose latest sale was between January 2021 and December 2022. For each, show units, year built, renovation year, sale date and price per unit, current occupancy and its 12-month change, retention, and 12-month in-place rent change. Split the list into properties that look stabilized enough for agency takeout financing now and ones that don't yet

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"""Agency-takeout stabilization screen for NoVA market-rate rentals
(150+ units, built <2000, latest sale 2021-01-01..2022-12-31).
Inputs transcribed from query_data results toolu_bdrk_01CQoFSuwLJjDjzogYMbXpYK (counties)
and toolu_bdrk_019DKrQwFfZtnANEYqzZKFZU (Alexandria city), rent_type == MARKET only.
Fields: name, juris, units, yb, yr_reno, sale_date, ppu, occ, occ_chg(pts, decimal), retention, ipr_chg(median, decimal), conf
"""
import json, csv
rows = [
("Vistas of Annandale","Fairfax",1065,1973,2022,"2022-07-20",258685,0.9465,-0.0376,0.7277,-0.0508,"EXCELLENT"),
("Monticello Falls Church","Fairfax",794,1964,2015,"2022-02-16",None,0.9723,-0.0050,0.8212,0.0317,"GOOD"),
("Amberleigh","Fairfax",752,1968,2009,"2022-09-29",180851,0.9548,0.0120,0.6835,0.0194,"EXCELLENT"),
("Halstead Fair Oaks","Fairfax",491,1987,2017,"2021-01-21",273117,0.9511,-0.0020,0.6538,-0.0059,"EXCELLENT"),
("Quimby on 23rd","Arlington",455,1971,2014,"2021-10-04",None,0.9516,-0.0022,0.4374,0.0323,"EXCELLENT"),
("Ravens Crest","Prince William",444,1989,2019,"2021-04-30",254505,0.9730,-0.0090,0.7703,0.0006,"EXCELLENT"),
("Huntington Gateway","Fairfax",443,1990,None,"2021-10-14",282167,0.9752,-0.0023,0.7991,0.0204,"EXCELLENT"),
("Arbors on Duke","Alexandria",400,1990,2022,"2021-07-19",None,0.9275,-0.0450,0.7475,0.0012,"EXCELLENT"),
("Avana Fieldstone","Loudoun",384,1987,2013,"2021-09-16",286458,0.8750,-0.0911,0.5781,0.0047,"EXCELLENT"),
("Fairway Apartments","Fairfax",346,1969,2018,"2021-05-04",268786,0.9335,-0.0462,0.8324,0.0362,"EXCELLENT"),
("Crystal Woods","Fairfax",344,1966,2014,"2021-09-01",285174,0.9709,0.0116,0.7471,0.0195,"EXCELLENT"),
("Dominion Plaza","Arlington",318,1956,2015,"2022-04-19",287736,0.9119,-0.0472,0.7736,-0.0018,"EXCELLENT"),
("Waterside at Reston","Fairfax",276,1985,2013,"2022-01-06",305616,0.9457,-0.0254,0.6123,0.0139,"EXCELLENT"),
("2410 Little Current Dr (unnamed)","Fairfax",269,1996,None,"2021-12-20",222454,None,None,None,None,None),
("Avana Stoney Ridge","Prince William",264,1985,2021,"2021-04-30",201515,0.8977,-0.0682,0.6250,0.0351,"EXCELLENT"),
("Colvin Woods","Fairfax",259,1979,2007,"2022-09-06",None,None,None,None,None,None),
("Windsor at Fair Lakes","Fairfax",250,1988,2009,"2022-11-21",320000,0.9520,-0.0040,0.7160,-0.0027,"EXCELLENT"),
("Eagle Rock at Columbia Pike","Arlington",247,1991,2011,"2021-12-28",449292,0.9393,-0.0405,0.6802,0.0006,"EXCELLENT"),
("The Knoll at Fair Oaks","Fairfax",246,1989,2015,"2022-08-02",338211,0.9512,-0.0366,0.6260,0.0107,"EXCELLENT"),
("Chase Heritage","Loudoun",236,1986,2010,"2021-01-29",243644,0.9364,-0.0593,0.8644,0.0197,"EXCELLENT"),
("Windsor Park","Prince William",220,1986,2008,"2021-12-27",284823,0.9682,-0.0136,0.7273,0.0055,"EXCELLENT"),
("Barton House","Arlington",214,1966,None,"2021-12-15",350467,None,None,None,None,None),
("J Harbor Park at North Point","Fairfax",190,1996,2007,"2021-09-14",347105,0.9684,-0.0053,0.7211,0.0146,"EXCELLENT"),
("101 North Ripley","Alexandria",189,1963,2022,"2022-06-09",265079,0.9788,0.0741,0.6138,-0.0298,"EXCELLENT"),
("Cortland Arlington","Arlington",184,1986,None,"2022-07-06",545652,0.9620,0.0707,0.7283,-0.0066,"EXCELLENT"),
("Springwoods at Lake Ridge","Prince William",180,1986,2022,"2021-12-27",285216,0.9667,-0.0111,0.7667,0.0232,"EXCELLENT"),
("Trellis Herndon","Fairfax",168,1988,None,"2022-07-05",136161,0.9821,0.0119,0.4881,0.0174,"EXCELLENT"),
("The Glen","Fairfax",152,1978,None,"2022-10-20",240132,0.9671,-0.0132,0.8158,-0.0262,"GOOD"),
]
# Screen (agency floor is ~90% physical occupancy sustained ~90 days; we require a buffer):
#  NOT YET if occ < 93%, OR (occ < 95% AND occupancy fell > 3 pts YoY), OR in-place rent fell > 3% YoY
#  Flags (still Ready): retention < 55%; rent down 2-3%; occ up > 5 pts YoY (verify 90-day seasoning);
#                       occ down > 3 pts but >= 95%; sample confidence below EXCELLENT
out = []
for r in rows:
    name,j,u,yb,yr,sd,ppu,occ,dch,ret,ipr,conf = r
    flags=[]
    if occ is None:
        status="No current data"
    else:
        fail = occ<0.93 or (occ<0.95 and dch<-0.03) or ipr<-0.03
        status = "Not yet" if fail else "Ready"
        if ret<0.55: flags.append("retention <55%")
        if -0.03<=ipr<-0.02: flags.append("in-place rent down 2-3%")
        if dch>0.05: flags.append("occupancy just recovered - verify 90-day seasoning")
        if dch<-0.03 and occ>=0.95: flags.append("occupancy down >3 pts YoY")
        if conf!="EXCELLENT": flags.append(f"{conf} sample confidence")
    out.append(dict(name=name,juris=j,units=u,year_built=yb,year_renovated=yr,sale_date=sd,price_per_unit=ppu,
                    occupancy=occ,occ_chg_pts=None if dch is None else round(dch*100,2),retention=ret,
                    ipr_t12_chg=ipr,status=status,flags="; ".join(flags)))
with open("extracts/nova_agency_screen.csv","w",newline="") as f:
    w=csv.DictWriter(f,fieldnames=out[0].keys()); w.writeheader(); w.writerows(out)
from collections import Counter
print(Counter(o["status"] for o in out))
for s in ["Ready","Not yet","No current data"]:
    g=[o for o in out if o["status"]==s]
    print(f"\n== {s} ({len(g)}) units={sum(o['units'] for o in g)}")
    for o in g: print(o["name"],o["occupancy"],o["occ_chg_pts"],o["ipr_t12_chg"],o["flags"])
rd=[o for o in out if o["status"]=="Ready"]; ny=[o for o in out if o["status"]=="Not yet"]
import statistics as st
print("\nmedian occ ready",st.median(o["occupancy"] for o in rd),"not yet",st.median(o["occupancy"] for o in ny))
print("median occ chg ready",st.median(o["occ_chg_pts"] for o in rd),"not yet",st.median(o["occ_chg_pts"] for o in ny))

Of the 28 market-rate properties that meet your filters, 17 look stabilized enough for an agency takeout now, 8 don't yet, and 3 have no current operating data. All figures are as of the 9/26/2026 rent-index read.

The two groups split mainly on whether occupancy is holding, not on rents. The median "ready" property is 96.7% occupied and lost 0.4 points over the year. The median "not yet" property is 93.1% occupied and lost 4.7 points . In-place rents are roughly flat across both groups, so rent levels aren't what holds anyone back.

How I split them: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac generally want at least 90% physical occupancy held for about 90 days. I added a cushion above that. A property is "not yet" if any of these is true:

occupancy is below 93%;
occupancy is below 95% and fell more than 3 points in 12 months;
in-place rent fell more than 3% in 12 months.

What I filtered out and missed:

I kept only properties tagged as pure market-rate. That dropped 7 affordable and 6 mixed-income properties, including Cityside Huntington Metro, Ellipse at Fairfax Corner and Cascades Crossing.
Alexandria is an independent city, so I searched it separately. That added Arbors on Duke and 101 North Ripley .
The independent cities of Fairfax, Falls Church and Manassas are not covered.

Stabilized enough for agency takeout now (17)

Agency-ready: market-rate NoVA rentals, 150+ units, built pre-2000, sold 2021–2022

Jurisdiction	Units	Year built	Renovated	Latest sale	Price/unit	Occupancy	Occ. 12-mo chg (pts)	Retention	In-place rent 12-mo chg (median)	Flags
Fairfax Co.	794	1964	2015	2/16/2022	n/a	97.2%1	-0.5	82.1%2	+3.2%3	Good (not excellent) sample confidence; no sale price4
Fairfax Co.	752	1968	2009	9/29/2022	$180,851	95.5%	+1.2	68.4%	+1.9%	—
Fairfax Co.	491	1987	2017	1/21/2021	$273,117	95.1%	-0.2	65.4%	-0.6%	—
Arlington	455	1971	2014	10/4/2021	n/a	95.2%	-0.2	43.7%	+3.2%	Low retention; no sale price
Prince William	444	1989	2019	4/30/2021	$254,505	97.3%	-0.9	77.0%	+0.1%	—
Fairfax Co.	443	1990	—	10/14/2021	$282,167	97.5%	-0.2	79.9%	+2.0%	—
Fairfax Co.	344	1966	2014	9/1/2021	$285,174	97.1%	+1.2	74.7%	+2.0%	—
Fairfax Co.	276	1985	2013	1/6/2022	$305,616	94.6%	-2.5	61.2%	+1.4%	Borderline
Fairfax Co.	250	1988	2009	11/21/2022	$320,000	95.2%	-0.4	71.6%	-0.3%	—
Fairfax Co.	246	1989	2015	8/2/2022	$338,211	95.1%	-3.7	62.6%	+1.1%	Occupancy down >3 pts
Prince William	220	1986	2008	12/27/2021	$284,823	96.8%	-1.4	72.7%	+0.6%	—
Fairfax Co.	190	1996	2007	9/14/2021	$347,105	96.8%	-0.5	72.1%	+1.5%	—
Alexandria	189	1963	2022	6/9/2022	$265,079	97.9%	+7.4	61.4%	-3.0%	Just recovered; rents cut
Arlington	184	1986	—	7/6/2022	$545,652	96.2%	+7.1	72.8%	-0.7%	Just recovered; verify 90 days
Prince William	180	1986	2022	12/27/2021	$285,216	96.7%	-1.1	76.7%	+2.3%	—
Fairfax Co.	168	1988	—	7/5/2022	$136,161	98.2%	+1.2	48.8%	+1.7%	Low retention; price/unit looks off
Fairfax Co.	152	1978	—	10/20/2022	$240,132	96.7%	-1.3	81.6%	-2.6%	Rents slipping; Good sample confidence

Cleanest of the group: Ravens Crest, Huntington Gateway, Crystal Woods, Windsor Park, J Harbor Park and Springwoods. Each is at least 96.7% occupied, lost no more than 1.4 points over the year, and has in-place rents flat to up.

Ready, but check these first:

101 North Ripley: occupancy jumped from 90.5% to 97.9%, while median in-place rent fell 3.0% . That looks like occupancy bought with rent cuts or concessions. Ask for the T-3 (trailing three months of operations) and get confirmation that occupancy has held for 90 days.
Cortland Arlington: same seasoning question. Occupancy rose from 89.1% to 96.2% .
Quimby on 23rd and Trellis Herndon: retention is 44–49%, meaning more than half of tenants turned over. That doesn't block agency financing, but it means high turnover costs.
Trellis Herndon's recorded $136k/unit is about half its Herndon peers. It may be a partial-interest or non-arm's-length deed, so check it before you use it as a basis.

Not yet stabilized (8)

Not yet agency-ready

Jurisdiction	Units	Year built	Renovated	Latest sale	Price/unit	Occupancy	Occ. 12-mo chg (pts)	Retention	In-place rent 12-mo chg (median)	Why not yet
Fairfax Co.	1,065	1973	2022	7/20/2022	$258,685	94.7%1	-3.8	72.8%	-5.1%	Occupancy and rents both falling
Alexandria	400	1990	2022	7/19/2021	n/a	92.8%	-4.5	74.8%	+0.1%	Below 93%, falling
Loudoun	384	1987	2013	9/16/2021	$286,458	87.5%	-9.1	57.8%	+0.5%	Below the 90% agency floor
Fairfax Co.	346	1969	2018	5/4/2021	$268,786	93.4%	-4.6	83.2%	+3.6%	Occupancy sliding
Arlington	318	1956	2015	4/19/2022	$287,736	91.2%	-4.7	77.4%	-0.2%	Barely above floor, falling
Prince William	264	1985	2021	4/30/2021	$201,515	89.8%	-6.8	62.5%	+3.5%	Below the 90% agency floor
Arlington	247	1991	2011	12/28/2021	$449,292	93.9%	-4.1	68.0%	+0.1%	Occupancy sliding
Loudoun	236	1986	2010	1/29/2021	$243,644	93.6%	-5.9	86.4%	+2.0%	Occupancy sliding

Rent cuts would be the wrong fix for most of these. Fairway, Chase Heritage and Avana Stoney Ridge all lost 4.6–6.8 points of occupancy while raising in-place rents 2.0–3.6% . They look like they pushed rents ahead of demand. Easing renewal increases would probably bring them back to about 95% within a couple of quarters.

Avana Fieldstone is furthest away. It's at 87.5%, down 9.1 points , and would need a bridge extension or a lease-up period first.

Vistas of Annandale is the biggest problem. It's the largest asset on the list at 1,065 units, and it's the only one where occupancy and in-place rent are both falling: down 3.8 points and 5.1% .

No current operating data (3)

The data has no rent or occupancy reads for these, so I couldn't screen them. You'd need a rent roll and T-12 (trailing 12 months of operations) from the owner:

2410 Little Current Dr, Herndon: 269 units, 1996, $222k/unit.
Colvin Woods, Reston: 259 units, 1979. It's probably a duplicate of Haven Reston, which has the same unit count, year built and 9/6/2022 sale date, and is tagged affordable .
Barton House, Arlington: 214 units, 1966, $350k/unit.

One timing point: the 2021–22 buyers mostly used floating-rate bridge loans, so many of these are in their extension window now. That makes the "not yet" group the likeliest place to find owners under refinancing pressure.

The full screen is saved at extracts/nova_agency_screen.csv.