Brix on Belleview Rent Comp Analysis

Brix on Belleview is priced at parity with its renovated comp set on a $/SF basis — the real opportunity isn't a hidden rent gap, it's underused leasing velocity and a widening expense gap

Property	Distance from subject (mi)	Units	Building style	Year built/renovated	Occupancy (latest)	Asking rent avg	In-place rent avg	In-place rent $/SF
Brix on Belleview (Subject)	0.00 mi	183	Garden	1962 / 2012	92.9%	$1,321	$1,281	$2.01
	0.06 mi	206	Low-Rise	1976 / —	97.6%	$1,1971	$1,117	$1.87
	0.17 mi	312	Garden	1990 / 2016	95.2%	$1,6311	$1,536	$1.93
	0.58 mi	312	Garden	1985 / 2010	92.6%	$1,670	$1,634	$1.77
	1.34 mi	238	Low-Rise	2016 / —	91.6%	$1,747	$1,664	$2.24
	1.71 mi	45	Low-Rise	1972 / 1997	88.9%	$1,1241	$1,188	$2.32
	1.72 mi	306	Low-Rise	2014 / —	90.5%	$1,765	$1,710	$1.93
	1.96 mi	47	Garden	1971 / 2023	91.5%	$1,3751	$1,245	$2.34
	2.12 mi	438	Garden	2001 / 2018	95.2%	$1,714	$1,732	$1.91
	2.16 mi	48	Garden	1968 / —	89.6%	$1,4991	$1,384	$2.38
	2.36 mi	616	Garden	1986 / 2008	93.7%	$1,989	$1,788	$2.13

Run the $/unit numbers cold and Brix looks like it's leaving $280–350/month per 1BR and 2BR on the table against renovated peers (Alvista, Greenwood, ArtWalk, The Marks, Windsong) . But that comparison is contaminated by size — those comps average 770–940 SF against Brix's 651 SF. Normalize to $/SF, the metric that actually isolates pricing power from square footage, and the story flips: Brix's 1BR runs $2.14/SF and 2BR $1.82/SF, both landing right at or fractionally above the renovated-comp average ($2.11 and $1.86, respectively) . The "recently renovated, capture upside" thesis doesn't hold on a like-for-like basis — the property is already pricing its renovation into the rent, just on a smaller floorplate.

Where the real signal sits: leasing velocity, not rent gap. Brix is leasing new units in a median 45 days, versus 82 days for the Englewood submarket and 62 days for Denver metro — while holding occupancy (92.9% latest, 93.6% 30-day avg) essentially at parity with both the submarket (92.7%) and metro (92.6%) . That combination — materially faster absorption at the same occupancy — is the classic underpriced signal. The cleanest comp for testing it is Windsong Apartments: same small-unit profile (536 SF), renovated in 2023 (closest vintage match to Brix's reno story), and getting $2.34/SF — 16% above Brix's $2.01/SF . That's the ceiling worth testing on next vacancies, not the broader comp set's larger units.

The trend line is the flag, not the level. Brix's in-place rent fell 3.7% over the past 12 months versus 2.2% for the submarket and 1.6% for the metro — the property is discounting faster than the market it competes in, despite the renovation story . Asking rent shows a steeper -9.7% drop, though that figure rests on a sample of just 12 listings and should be treated as directional, not precise . Tradeout on new leases is still negative (-2.3%, meaning new tenants are signing below what the outgoing tenant paid) but improving — it's tightened roughly 53% over the last quarter, ahead of the submarket's pace . Retention sits at 62.8%, about 7 points below the Englewood submarket's 70.1% and roughly in line with the metro's 63.2% — with 68 turnovers on 183 units (a ~37% annualized turn rate), Brix is re-leasing more of its roll into a concession-heavy market than its immediate neighbors, which is likely a bigger drag on effective rent than any listed asking price.

Operational gap: expense ratio, not occupancy. NOI runs at 48% of EGI at Brix versus a 56% Denver-metro benchmark — an 8-point gap that's larger than anything visible in the rent comps . Before chasing rent upside, that expense-ratio gap is worth a dedicated operating-efficiency read, since closing even half of it moves NOI more than a modest rent push would.

Market backdrop. Denver multifamily concessions are running at a 21-year record — averaging 9.5% of gross rent, with roughly two-thirds of metro listings offering some incentive, concentrated in 2022–2024 vintage buildings . Several of the renovated/newer comps here (Windsong, Sequel, Oxford Station, Avalon Cherry Hills) fall in or near that vintage band, so their advertised asking rents likely carry unlisted incentives that aren't netted out in the $/SF comparison above — the true achievable premium at those properties is probably a little lower than face rents suggest. Brix's own fast DOM suggests it isn't needing to compete on concessions as heavily, which is a competitive advantage worth protecting rather than discounting away.

Bottom line: don't underwrite a renovation-driven rent-growth story here — Brix is already priced in line with its renovated peer set on a normalized basis. The actionable upside is (1) testing a modest asking increase on turning units, leaning on the DOM cushion and the Windsong benchmark, while watching absorption closely; (2) tightening renewal pricing to arrest the retention gap and above-market turnover, which is costing more in re-leasing and concession exposure than it's earning in mark-to-market; and (3) running an operating-efficiency review on the expense ratio, which is the larger and more controllable value lever right now. A unit-level rent roll would sharpen all three — happy to run the Mark-to-Market or Rent Revenue Optimizer workflow against it if you can pull one.