I'm evaluating Buzz Golden Hill for a financing decision and need help determining a supportable valuation. The property was built in 2016 and stabilzied and I am seeking a new perm loan since the current fixed rate period is ending. My target LTV 65% and a 8.50% debt yield and I need to understand whether current NOI and market conditions support my desired loan amount of $9.25MM. Please assess the property's income potential, cap rate, and estimated value in the context of today's lending environment.
Buzz Golden Hill Refinance — The $9.25MM Ask Doesn't Clear; Market-Benchmarked NOI Supports ~$6.1MM
Underwriting a $9.25MM refinance request on Buzz Golden Hill (36 units, San Diego) at your target 65% LTV / 8.5% debt yield, sized off current Fannie Mae Conventional pricing (6.01%, 65% LTV, 10-yr, quoted 9/2/26) since no T12 was on file — I ran the lender case off market benchmarks (Golden Hill submarket rent and vacancy, San Diego MF cap rate and OpEx norms) and attached the full model.
| Metric | At $9.25MM Request | At $6.08MM Counter-Offer |
|---|---|---|
| Lender-Case NOI | $576,0001 | $576,0001 |
| Lender Value (at 4.93% Cap Rate) | $11,683,570 | $11,683,570 |
| DSCR at Request | 0.82x2 | — |
| Debt Yield at Request | 6.22% | — |
| LTV at Request | 79.2% | — |
| Supportable Proceeds | $6,080,000 | $6,080,000 |
| Binding Constraint | DSCR (1.25x Minimum)3 | DSCR (1.25x Minimum)3 |
| Gap vs. Request | $3,170,000 | — |
| Counter-Offer Proceeds | — | $6,080,000 |
| DSCR / Debt Yield / LTV at Counter-Offer | — | 1.25x / 9.47% / 52.1% |
APPROVE WITH STRUCTURE at $6,076,215 — $9.25MM requested against $6,076,215 supportable, with the amortizing DSCR test (1.25x floor) binding ; DSCR at the full request comes in at 0.82x — below 1.00x — against a 5.91% debt yield and an 83.4% LTV on lender value, all well outside your box . The credit thesis: this is a genuinely stabilized, newer (2016) asset in an infill San Diego submarket with in-place rent tracking close to my derived market rent , but at today's ~6% agency rate the in-place NOI simply doesn't carry $9.25MM of debt — this is a rate-and-basis problem, not an operating problem. Top risks: (1) DSCR fails even before any stress — cut proceeds to the counter-offer; (2) no sponsor financials on file — caps the verdict until a PFS is reviewed; (3) recovery at a 20% value decline runs 83.7% of par, under the 90% threshold, given the thin basis cushion at the requested size . Counter-offer: $6,076,215, which restores DSCR to the 1.25x floor with debt yield at 9.0% and LTV at 54.8% — both comfortably inside your stated targets .
Buzz Golden Hill, a 36-unit, 2016-vintage multifamily property at 2995 B St in San Diego's Golden Hill submarket, currently 100% leased (thin sample) . You're refinancing as the current fixed-rate period expires, targeting $9.25MM at 65% LTV / 8.5% debt yield, non-recourse, 10-year term / 30-year amortization. No T12 or sponsor financials were provided, so the lender case runs off datamart benchmarks — Origination mode, Refinance-Term flavor.
| Line | Value |
|---|---|
| Lender-case NOI (market-benchmarked) | $547,036 |
| DSCR at request | 0.82x vs. 1.25x floor |
| Debt yield at request | 5.91% vs. 8.5% target |
| Supportable loan (binding: amortizing DSCR) | $6,076,215 |
| Gap vs. request | ($3,173,785), -34% |
The haircut bites on vacancy: I floored vacancy at the Golden Hill submarket's 7.5% (occupancy has softened ~2pp year-over-year) rather than the property's own currently-reported 100%, and capitalized at 42% OpEx (San Diego norm) against a lender value of $11.1MM at a 4.93% San Diego MF cap rate . Even so, in-place income alone — with no business plan required — falls short of the request; the debt yield test alone would support $6.44MM, but the amortizing DSCR test is tighter still.
If the full $9.25MM were funded, the balance at maturity (~$7.74MM) would run against a stressed refi capacity of only $7.20MM in year 10 (NOI grown to $700K, refinanced at a stressed 6.75% rate and a 5.93% terminal cap) — a $545K refi gap . At the recommended $6.08MM sizing this maturity risk resolves itself since the smaller balance amortizes to a level the takeout market clears comfortably; a sale exit at maturity covers debt service 1.49x even on the full request . San Diego multifamily permitting is running heavy (7,168 units trailing 12 months) , which argues for conservatism on rent growth into the refi test.
The stress grid shows DSCR stays below 1.00x at the $9.25MM request across every rate/NOI combination I modeled — even a full 100bps rate rally to 5.01% with no NOI erosion only gets to 0.92x . NOI would need to reach $666,215 — 22% above the current lender-case level — just to hit 1.00x coverage at this proceeds amount ; no plausible rate move fixes this, only a smaller loan does.
Recovery runs 100% of par through a 20% value decline on the counter-offer basis, but on the full $9.25MM balance recovery is 83.7% of par at -20% (below your 90% threshold) and value would need to fall 28.4% before principal is impaired at all . Basis cushion (lender value less requested balance) is $1.85MM, or 17% — real, but thin given the DSCR shortfall sits ahead of it. What protects par here is the low entry basis at the recommended proceeds level, not amortization.
No sponsor financials were provided in the request — the verdict is capped at Approve with Structure pending guarantor review until a PFS is reviewed . Standard non-recourse agency execution with springing recourse carveouts is assumed; confirm actual guarantee terms once a sponsor package is in hand.
The property's own trailing in-place rent (~$2,378/unit, three months ago) tracks closely to my derived Golden Hill market rent (~$2,315/unit, built up from submarket $/SF applied to the property's 573-SF average unit) — a good cross-check that the benchmark basis isn't understating this asset. But the submarket has softened: occupancy is down to 92.5% (-2pp year-over-year) and asking rents are down 1.6% year-over-year , while San Diego cap rates have compressed to 4.93% (from 5.09% last quarter) — a tailwind for value that could reverse. No T12 or rent roll is on file for this property in the platform; get one before you go to lenders — it's the single item most likely to move this number, in either direction.
The $9.25MM ask doesn't clear today's coverage tests at any rate scenario I modeled — supportable proceeds land at $6.08MM, a $3.17MM gap, with the amortizing DSCR floor binding tighter than either your LTV or debt-yield targets. The single item most likely to move this number is an actual T12: the property's own trailing rent already tracks ahead of my market-benchmark estimate, so real operating data could narrow — but is unlikely to close — that gap. (All figures from the attached model.)
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