Investment Outlook
Three Scenarios for Investors and Residents — A Comprehensive Analysis of Risk, Opportunity, and Strategic Positioning
November 2025
Executive Summary
The 2028 Summer Olympics represent a transformative catalyst for Los Angeles real estate, but outcomes will depend heavily on economic conditions, monetary policy, and infrastructure execution.
Economic Impact
$18B
Total projected contribution
Jobs Created
90K
Full-time equivalent
Visitors Expected
15M
During Games period
Tax Revenue
$700M
State & local combined
Historical Precedent: Past Olympics have delivered 20-30% price appreciation in areas near venues and transit hubs—but this is highly dependent on execution and broader economic conditions.
Current Market Conditions
The market has entered a period of stabilization after years of volatility, with modest appreciation and cooling sales velocity.
Median Home Price
$972K
+3.8% T12M
Estimated Home Value
$953K
+4.7% T12M
MF In-Place Rent
$2,738
+0.8% T12M
SF In-Place Rent
$5,248
Flat T12M
| Type | Units |
|---|---|
| Single-Family | 12,227 |
| Multifamily | 14,331 |
| Total | 26,558 |
The Core Challenge
With median household income at $101,897 (97th percentile nationally), LA residents earn well above the U.S. average—but home prices at $972K create an income-to-price ratio far exceeding sustainable levels.
| Median Household Income | $101,897 |
| Median Home Price | $972,417 |
| National Percentile (Income) | 97th |
For renters, median household income of $77,850 translates to a maximum affordable rent of ~$1,946 under the 30% rule, yet market rents are 41% higher at $2,738.
| Median Renter Income | $77,850 |
| Max Affordable Rent (30%) | $1,946 |
| Actual Market Rent | $2,738 |
Market Outlook: The market is cooling, not crashing. Sales velocity has slowed, inventory is rising gradually, and price appreciation has moderated to single digits. This sets the stage for how the Olympics might amplify—or suppress—these trends.
Scenario Analysis
"Olympic Tailwinds"
35%
Price Forecast: +16-23% cumulative by July 2028
"Muddling Through"
45%
Price Forecast: +6-9% cumulative by July 2028
"False Start"
20%
Price Forecast: -6% to +3% cumulative by July 2028
Scenario 1 — "Olympic Tailwinds"
| Metric | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Market-Wide Annual Growth | 4-7% |
| Cumulative by July 2028 | 16-23% |
| Olympic Zone Premium | 25-35% |
| Median Price (2028) — Market | $1.13-1.20M |
| Median Price (2028) — Olympic Corridors | $1.4-1.6M |
| Metric | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Multifamily Rent Growth | 5-7% annually |
| Single-Family Rent Growth | 4-6% annually |
| Olympic-Adjacent Premium | 15-20% |
| Occupancy (2027) | 97-98% |
Scenario 1 — "Olympic Tailwinds"
Rent control expansion, eviction moratoriums, or inclusionary zoning requirements could cap upside potential.
If transit projects miss deadlines, investor confidence could evaporate rapidly.
High-end condo developments could flood the market post-Games.
Scenario 2 — "Muddling Through"
| Metric | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Market-Wide Annual Growth | 2-3% |
| Cumulative by July 2028 | 6-9% |
| Olympic Zone Premium | 8-12% |
| Median Price (2028) — Market | $1.03-1.06M |
| Metric | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Multifamily Rent Growth | 2-3% annually |
| Single-Family Rent Growth | Flat to +2% |
| Occupancy | 94-95% |
| Concessions | 1-2 months free |
Base Case: This scenario aligns with institutional forecasts (Zillow 2-5%, CoreLogic 3-5%) and represents the most likely outcome given current market conditions.
Scenario 2 — "Muddling Through"
If wages don't keep pace with inflation, landlords face pricing power erosion.
Post-Games demand cliff could leave investors holding overpriced assets.
Political pressure for rent control or tenant protections may intensify.
Scenario 3 — "False Start"
| Metric | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Market-Wide Annual Growth | -2% to +1% |
| Cumulative by July 2028 | -6% to +3% |
| Inglewood | Flat to +5% |
| Speculative Areas | -5% to -10% |
| Median Price (2028) | $915K-$1.0M |
| Metric | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Multifamily Rent Growth | Flat to -2% |
| Single-Family Rent Growth | -3% to flat |
| Occupancy | 91-93% |
| Context | Highest vacancy since 2010 |
Key Trigger: Recession in 2026-2027 combined with mortgage rate spike would create a buyer's market — opportunity for patient capital.
Scenario 3 — "False Start"
Even distressed assets may be difficult to finance or exit in a risk-off environment.
Recession could trigger aggressive tenant protections, rent freezes, or vacancy taxes.
While unlikely, geopolitical or health crises could delay or derail the Games entirely.
Scenario Comparison
Analytical Framework
| Period | Growth | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| T1yr | +3.8% | 40% |
| T3yr (annualized) | +3.7% | 30% |
| T5yr (annualized) | +7.3% | 30% |
| Weighted Baseline | +4.7% | |
| Factor | Impact per Unit |
|---|---|
| Mortgage Rate | ~2.0-2.5pp per 100bp |
| Inventory | ~1.0-1.5pp per month |
| Employment | ~0.6-1.0pp per 1% |
Scenario 1: 4.7% + 3.0pp (rates) + 1.5pp (inventory) + 2.0pp (employment) + 2.0pp (Olympics) - 2.0pp (reversion) = 11.2% total → 5.5% annually
Scenario 2: 4.7% + 0pp + (-0.5pp) + 0.8pp + 0.5pp - 2.0pp = 3.5% total → 2.3% annually
Scenario 3: 4.7% + (-2.5pp) + (-2.0pp) + (-0.5pp) + 0pp - 2.0pp = -2.3% total → -1.5% annually
Strategic Recommendations
Core MF, workforce housing, stabilized cash-flowing assets
Olympic zone acquisitions, value-add MF, STR conversions
Dry powder for distressed, defensive suburban MF
Conclusion
The 2028 Olympics will reshape Los Angeles, but the magnitude of that transformation hinges on factors largely outside local control — Federal Reserve policy, national employment trends, and global capital flows.
Diversify across all three scenarios. The market is pricing in Scenario 2, so Scenario 1 offers upside optionality, while Scenario 3 requires defensive positioning.
If planning to buy and hold 7+ years, the Olympics are a tailwind regardless of scenario. If speculating on 2-3 year appreciation, you're betting on mortgage rates — and that's a coin flip.
The real story isn't whether home prices rise or fall — it's who benefits and who gets displaced. Track the human impact of Olympic-driven gentrification.
The starting gun has been fired. The question is: Which race are we running?